For the curious - Swine Flu Thread

[Rkolter]

Here's a thread on the Swine Flu potential pandemic.

First, some links:

For the USA:
CDC (Center for Disease Control) - http://www.cdc.gov/
CDC's Swine Flu page - http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/

Updates also available via Twitter - http://twitter.com/cdcemergency

For the World:
WHO (World Health Organization) - http://www.who.int/en/
WHO's Swine Influenza page - http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/en/index.html

Now for some current updates I've dredged and accumulated.

Why is the Swine Flu only killing people in Mexico?
- Don't know. Working on it. The disease is the same elsewhere. It's possible there's just enough infected people in Mexico for there to be a clear indication of lethality. Or the deceased might have had other health issues.

How easy is it to catch?
- Don't know. Humans don't have a natural immunity to it, which means that if it is found to easily* transfer between people, it could spread rapidly. The asterisk is because it does spread between people. If found to spread easily, then the threat goes up. Normal procedures for avoiding getting the flu seem to work fine - all the common sense stuff you learned as a kid - don't pick your nose, wash your hands, avoid people who are coughing or sneezing, if you feel sick don't go to work, etcetera. If you feel the real urge to wear a mask, that's fine but it's overreacting right now unless you're in some kind of hot spot.

How bad is it?
- It's like the flu. Only a different strain. It has similar symptoms to the flu. Its lethality isn't entirely known, but may be low (keep it in perspective - the regular flu killed 30,000 - thirty thousand - people in the US alone last year). Because we have no natural immunity and we have no immunization for it, it could be very catchy, though. Current drugs work well against it if given early during infection.

Where has it been found?
-The US, Canada, Mexico, and Spain all have CONFIRMED cases that they've submitted to the WHO. New Zealand, Israel, and England have cases they have confirmed, but have not submitted to the WHO. The total number of potential cases is much higher than the confirmed cases. But the total potential cases are still low - even in Mexico it's under 2000 across the nation. Potential cases have been found in about two dozen countries, but they aren't reported reliably and only confirmed cases that have been submitted to the WHO are actually counted by the WHO.

A potential case is a case that has had a test done, and the test has NOT come back as Influenza A - the most common type of normal flu bug.

A confirmed case is a case that has had additional testing done and is confirmed to be H5N1 Swine Flu.

What is H1N1? What is this virus?
-Influenza viruses are named based on variations of two proteins - (H)emagglutinin and (N)euraminidase protein. Different Influenza viruses and mutations have different versions of these proteins. The current swine flu virus outbreak is a variation of H1N1.

It appears this virus is made up of bits of two swine viruses, an avian virus, and a human virus. But "made up" is a bad expression - viruses have a habit of borrowing and swapping genetics with other viruses they encounter. There is zero evidence that this virus was "created", although there are already email spams about it being a terrorist attack. Ignore them.

Can I eat pork:
- Wha... of course you can. That's not how flu is transmitted. I'm half-convinced some media idiot put this idea out there just to spook people.

Should I stock up on Tamiflu?
- Depends. If you're the kind of person who regularly spends gobs of cash on medicines they don't need for diseases they are unlikely to catch, then yes. To determine this, first take stock on how much snake antivenom you have, how many epie pens you have for anaphalatic shock, how many containers of antibiotics you have for the potential of catching MSRA or flesh eating bacteria, and how much iodine you have for radiation poisoning. If you have ample supplies of all these, go out and buy some Tamiflu just in case.

Otherwise get it if the doctor perscribes it to you because you have the flu.

Overall:
- Don't be freaked out. If you get it in all liklihood it'll feel like you got the flu. If you have the flu, it's very unlikely it's Swine flu. Take normal precautions you would take during flu season, and if you do get the flu, and it doesn't start to get better after a couple days (or you have other health issues) then see the doctor.

Otherwise, just keep an open ear on the subject and don't stress for now.

[Tim]

Thanks to the Comic Genesis Science Council for this message.

Can I eat pork:
- Wha... of course you can. That's not how flu is transmitted. I'm half-convinced some media idiot put this idea out there just to spook people.

I get the feeling people are confusing this with "mad cow disease". As with most things of this nature, there's a lot of opportunity for false statements to mix with the spread of information.

[MixedMyth]

part of the lethality and Mexico may be because of socioeconomic factors... less ability to acquire medical assistance early on for many people, either due to funds or physical isolation away from medical centers. Don't really know, though

[KWill]

Can I eat pork:
- Wha... of course you can. That's not how flu is transmitted. I'm half-convinced some media idiot put this idea out there just to spook people.

Specially not if it's been cooked...

What I find interesting is that there hasn't been a single confirmed case of a pig with that particular strain...
(at least according to this, reliable but in German)

[Rkolter]

Can I eat pork:
- Wha... of course you can. That's not how flu is transmitted. I'm half-convinced some media idiot put this idea out there just to spook people.

Specially not if it's been cooked...

What I find interesting is that there hasn't been a single confirmed case of a pig with that particular strain...
(at least according to this, reliable but in German)

Verified in English too, but not surprising. It is called swine flu because it is H1N1, which is a variety of Swine Influenza. But it has genetic components from two different swine influenzas, an avian influenza, and a human influenza. As a result, there is no guarantee at all that the "last" animal in the chain was a pig.

For example -

It could have gone Pig - Pig - Bird - Human and become it's final form in a human and not have been seen in pigs in awhile.

It could have gone Pig - Human - Pig - Bird - and taken this form in a bird, then become infectious to humans (this one is feared to happen a lot where humans and pigs live close together and can swap viruses back and forth).

Or even Pig - Human - Bird - Pig - and in the final form, just not been particularly infectious to pigs anymore, but before dying off, a human got infected.

Or, it could be that it does infect pigs, but the virus is only found in one group of pigs, somewhere in the mexician countryside, and we just haven't found that pigpen yet. If that's the case, then eventually we'll find it in pigs - from their easily infected human owners.



The Pork industry is up in arms about calling this Swine Flu.

[McDuffies]

Thanks to the Comic Genesis Science Council for this message.

Can I eat pork:
- Wha... of course you can. That's not how flu is transmitted. I'm half-convinced some media idiot put this idea out there just to spook people.

I get the feeling people are confusing this with "mad cow disease". As with most things of this nature, there's a lot of opportunity for false statements to mix with the spread of information.

The funniest thing is, my government already prohibited pork import.

[KWill]

The Pork industry is up in arms about calling this Swine Flu.

Along with the Israeli Deputy Minister of Health (because pigs aren't kosher and it would be insulting to Jews and Muslims to call it that). It's probably going to be renamed "New Flu" over here, with voices calling for "North American Flu" or "Mexican Flu" in the tradition of "Spanish Flu".

[Tellurider]

Public Service Announcement:

-Since I can't catch the flu from pork, that means pork is totally safe right?

NO. It is most likely that the reason pigs are not kosher (or halal) is because pigs carry a worm called trichinosis, which is nonfatal to them but (hilariously enough) results in flu-like symptoms leading to death in humans. This is because trichinosis worms multiply rapidly in the muscles, causing aches and general cruddy feelings, then break your muscles down (including your heart) to kill you. Cases of trichinosis are now rare because people tend to not feed pigs scraps any more, which is how the worm's cycle was continued, and also because people are better about thoroughly cooking their meat (which kills the worms). But remember that uncooked pig meat is still not something you want to eat as worms are one of those things that are very difficult to totally eliminate.

This message brought to you by the council of "Telly thinks this is really cool and wants to share"

[Killbert-Robby]

I'm as worried about this as I was about the Ebola, SARs and Avian Flu scares......

[Dreamaniaccomic]

... So not worried at all, in any way?

[KWill]

Yeah, tis no longer referred to as swine flu over here. Get with the new flu, people.

[Mercury Hat]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/ ... 3420090429

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A government official confirmed the first U.S. death from the new H1N1 swine flu on Wednesday, a 23-month-old child who died in Texas.

It is the first death from swine flu reported outside Mexico, the country hardest hit by the influenza outbreak. The official gave no other details on the case. U.S. officials have confirmed 65 cases of swine flu, most of them mild.

[Rkolter]

Morning update pooled from sites:

As Merc pointed out the big news in the US is the first death, a 23-month old toddler in Texas. The CDC says they fully expected to see deaths in the US, and we can reasonably expect this won't be the only one. A CDC spokesperson says to expect it to get worse before it gets better.

Potentially hundreds of new cases in the US in New York from a school that had classmates travel to Mexico over spring break. There's now a confirmed case in Indiana too, and potential cases in Illinois and in Michigan.

There is better news out of Mexico though - the total suspected count is near 2500, but the death toll is leveling off and it's believed that the fact people are seeking medical care as soon as they become symptomatic is the cause.

Germany and Austria have reported confirmed cases. The countries that have confirmed cases with the WHO are now: Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Israel, Spain, Germany, Austria, Mexico, and the United States.

A vaccine is 4-6 months away due in no small part to the slow growth of this virus in chicken eggs. Once it's developed, the vaccine has to be safety tested before it can be deployed. If this flu becomes a pandemic, it may occur in waves, which would mean that although the vaccine may be late, it would still be useful. A downside - Sanofi-Aventis SA, one of the makers of the annual flu vaccine, says they may not be able to ramp up for both regular flu vaccine and swine flu vaccine, meaning if we get a swine flu vaccine we may not have regular shots (or nearly as many doses) come flu season.

Something to consider there - with 30,000 people dead in the US alone from regular flu last year (500,000 worldwide), do we want to slow production on that vaccine to produce a vaccine for swine flu? Swine Flu could become just godawful - that's a very real possibility. But, so is swine flu being fairly mild, if very contageous.

New links:

An "accumulation" site for swine flu news - http://www.thenswineflunews.com/

[Rkolter]

Thought this was interesting - Egypt is slaughtering the entire estimated 300,000 pigs in the country. As a result of the fear of Swine Flu. Despite there being no evidence of the flu in the pigs, and there having been no confirmed cases of Swine flu in Egypt.

Oh well. In Mexico, they hand out surgical masks. In Egypt, they kill pigs. Both are basically useless "feel good" gestures.

[Dracomax]

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/sw ... index.html
basicly, they think they found patient zero; The US is blamed.

[Netpoet]

I'll be honest, this thing scares me. I logically know that there is a much greater chance right now of my family being killed in a car crash (40,000 a year on average in the US) and other factors... but my daddy genes are kicking in. I have an 8 year old son and a 2 month old daughter. This sort of thing unnerves me, because I do not have any control over it.

And I know that most of it is media hype. Hell, the deaths in Mexico have leveled off. More infections but no additional deaths means that SOMETHING is working.

The flu's almost killed me once in my life, and it was the scariest thing I've ever been through. I do NOT want either of my kids to have to suffer through what I did, which is why my son's had the flu vaccine every year that he's been able to GET it. And he will get it this year as well... But I can't do any preventative measures right now to prevent THIS one.

And trust me, nothing's more contagious than a school full of 7 and 8 year old kids. You can't tell them to wear masks, they'll just lose em. You can't tell them not to put their fingers in their mouths... not to drink from the communal germ factory drinking fountain.... etc etc.

He's a walking germ breeding ground, as are most kids his age. And my daughter's in full-day daycare, at a place that does daycare for kids from birth to 17 (it's a HUGE church facility, and they are one of the best around, but I digress). She can't HAVE any vaccines for another 10 months.

Yeah, I know logically I should be as worried about this as I should worry about a meteor dropping out of the sky and flattening my home.

But I'm a dad. So I'll worry, even if it's just in here with you guys.

>Net

[Rkolter]

CDC has updated it's daily confirmed count for the US to 91 cases, 1 death.

9 states -
Arizona 1
California 14
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 2
Nevada 1
New York City 51
Ohio 1
Texas 16

The CDC doesn't publish a Probable count, however Google seems to be releasing a regularly updated list of news reports suggesting confirmed, probable, and possible cases. I've seen a few google maps now that work off this data.

Wikipedia has a table that uses the same data:

US: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine ... ted_States
WORLD: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_swine_flu

Both are accurate on confirmed counts, so I suspect they're accurate "enough" on probable and possible counts, but then again, not all probable and possible cases are talked about in the news, true? So take the tables above with a grain of salt.

** I would not suggest using Wikipedia for a source of information on the virus itself. The table data that can be immediately referenced and seems to be regularly updated; not so for the rest of the information in the above listed articles.

[KWill]

Hm. News over here are mentioning that the Mexican government might have screwed the number of dead due to that flu down to as little as seven after more extensive testing...

[Tellurider]

I'll be honest, this thing scares me. I logically know that there is a much greater chance right now of my family being killed in a car crash (40,000 a year on average in the US) and other factors... but my daddy genes are kicking in. I have an 8 year old son and a 2 month old daughter. This sort of thing unnerves me, because I do not have any control over it.

If it's any comfort, this type of flu typically hits people from the ages of 20-40 the hardest, so your kids are probably better off than you are.

But yeah, I know, you're gonna worry anyway. It's a parent thing. I'm a fully grown adult and my parents STILL worry.

[MixedMyth]

The Pork industry is up in arms about calling this Swine Flu.

Along with the Israeli Deputy Minister of Health (because pigs aren't kosher and it would be insulting to Jews and Muslims to call it that). It's probably going to be renamed "New Flu" over here, with voices calling for "North American Flu" or "Mexican Flu" in the tradition of "Spanish Flu".

You know, I'm generally against offending people but sometimes this kind of thing really does go too far. when it becomes a word game, it just gets silly. I understand pigs aren't kosher, but I see little reason why naming a disease after its origin species should cause offense. were this traditional swine flu, it would be accurate. However, I could see an argument for changing its name based on the fact that it is a hybrid strain with material from avian, swine, and human flus. That would be perfectly valid. Not sure I care much for calling it "new flu" though. It's awfully generic and will become outdated fairly quickly when the next flu season rolls around and new strains pop up. I mean, can you imagine people talking 10 years from now about this flu?

"Hey, do you remember that new flu scare?"
"Which new flu?"
"You know, the new flu!"
"There's a new one? I don't get it"